Victor Szwed

Three nice rain events in February provided around 54mm for our thirsty gardens up to Friday, just above the monthly average of 45mm. This was after only receiving 3.2mm in January compared to the long-term average of 46.1mm. Our 14 month rainfall total from 1st January 2025 to now is around 140mm below average, a significant deficit.

Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting below average rainfall from March to June for most of southern Australia. March is expected to be close to average but April to June well below average. The BOM’s forecasts may be altered if conditions influencing weather patterns change.

Last year Victoria had very dry conditions during autumn, particularly in north-western regions. Farmers missed out on vital autumn rains. Similar conditions could occur again this year according to the BOM forecasts. We should see some more rain into next week and hopefully this will add moisture into the ground.

Day and night temperatures are forecast to continue to be above average. While we may not have seen many hot days into the high thirties and forties, the average temperatures have been above the norm.

This time last year Melbourne’s water storages were 81% full, 11% higher than they are now. Overall, Victoria has 68 water storages totalling 12.6 Megalitres capacity. Currently they are only 52.6% or 6.62 ML full. Daylesford’s reservoirs had dropped to 68% in February last year and additional water restrictions were introduced. Currently, they are 83% full having dropped 7% over the past month. Hopefully they will not drop too quickly.

There are many factors which influence our rainfall and weather. The BOM advises that their monitoring shows that La Nina conditions are continuing to ease. That usually results in less rainfall. Atmospheric conditions such as Trade Winds, air pressure changes and cloud patters can influence our weather. The BOM web sites provide lots of valuable information, research and reporting. Well worth exploring.

There continues to be significant controversy about the BOM’s new web site. If you have difficulties with it then you can still access the previous version via www.reg,bom.gov.au This site is kept up dated as well.

Sea surface temperatures in Australian southern waters are up to 2 degrees above average. Off northern Australia, waters are slightly warmer than average. Warmer oceans provide increased moisture and energy. This can increase the severity of storms, cyclones and rain.

Victor Szwed is a Daylesford resident who has been involved in various community roles in our Shire for more than 26 years.