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Lots and lots of rain so far – Is El Nino still coming?

June rainfall of 186mm was well above the 106.6mm June average. For the first six months the total rainfall of 507mm is 29% above the long-term average of 393mm. However, the Bureau of Meteorology continues to forecast drier than normal conditions for July to September over south-eastern Victoria. The Bureau records rainfall to 9am each day, so June’s rainfall total finished at 9am on Tuesday the 30th after we had received 36mm.

The wetter and slightly milder conditions until last week encouraged growth of mushrooms and other fungi of many varieties. My nature strip and garden have seen lots of varieties over the past 3 months and I have been careful when mowing to save as much as possible so that they can grow.

Mushrooms generally evolve through four phases: Firstly germination; next colonization; thirdly pinning and finally maturing with their gills opening for spores to be released for a new generation to begin.

 An impressive “cluster” or “colony” of mushrooms. Many often grow on trees or rotting wood. Photo: Victor Szwed

The Bureau reports that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are above El Nino thresholds and atmospheric indicators also are aligning with an El Nino state. These conditions are likely to strengthen and sustain this event until at least the end of this year.

Daylesford’s water supply reservoirs are currently 100% full (and overflowing!) compared to only 31% full this time last year when we had some very dry months. Our reservoirs are not large and refill fairly quickly when we get a few good months of rain. Also, the back-up pipe which was completed last year can supply extra water if our reservoirs drop too much.

Ballarat’s supply is 47% full, similar to last year and Melbourne’s reservoirs are 64% full down from 71% last year. Across Australia, reservoirs are 65.4% full a little above the 64.5% last year.

The Bureau continues to forecast that daytime and overnight temperatures are expected to be warmer than average. While we have seen some very cold days, many locals have seen fewer frosts and less snow falls over the past several years.

Snowfield operators are disappointed so far with the lack of snow, particularly with the school holidays usually attracting large numbers of visitors. The Age newspaper reported on the 30th of June that since the 1950’s snow cover at ski fields has been gradually declining with temperatures often not dropping enough to produce good snow falls. The rainfalls during June have paired with less-cold temperatures that exacerbate this. Despite all the rainfalls this week, the Bureau was forecasting snowfalls only above 1500 metres for Thursday and above 1100 metres for Friday. Hopefully enough to top-up the artificial snow making at the ski resorts.

My weather station recorded 103mm of rain this week to 2pm on Thursday, equivalent to a full month’s rainfall.

Victor Szwed

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