Wintry conditions have continued in July. The first two weeks were very wet with 120mm of rain, well above the monthly average of 102.5mm. Rainfall has since eased significantly with the Bureau of Meteorology advising that El Nino, drier, conditions are established. Cold days, fog, occasional frosts and some drizzle have continued to make winter feel drab.
For August to October the Bureau forecasts that rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the eastern half of Australia. Above average rainfall is expected in north-west Western Australia. Day and night temperatures are expected to be above average across Australia.
Sea surface temperatures in central, tropical Pacific are above the El Nino thresholds. Also, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, air pressure and cloud patters are consistent with El Nino. The Bureau expects this El Nino to be strong to very strong.
Rainfalls for the 3 months to 30th June have been above average for central and western Victoria but below for eastern areas. For the past 3 years western Victoria rainfalls had been well below average, so they could do with further good rainfalls to replenish groundwaters and reservoirs. For Instance, Ballarat’s reservoirs are still only at 54%.
The Bureau also provides lots of information on issues such as soil moisture levels. This covers root zone moisture, that is, the top layer and not deeper areas. Soil moisture levels across Victoria are currently close to average for most areas which hopefully helps farmers with their winter and spring crops and feed for animals.
The Bureau expects that there is a 60% to 80% chance of below average rainfall and 40% to 70% chance of well-below rainfall for the coming three months. This would progressively reduce soil moisture and reservoir conditions. Consequently, we should all keep an eye on changing conditions and take action if the forecasts continue. Mulching and careful watering of our gardens together with other measures should be considered in Spring.
Victor Szwed
