The monthly rainfall for September was only 35mm, less than half the long-term average. This was after a very wet Winter with 483mm of rainfall for the 3 months, 55% higher than the long-term average for Winter.
2026 rainfall to the end of September of 840mm is 22% above the long-term average of 689mm. The Bureau of Meteorology continues to advise that El Nino is firmly established. However, their analysis indicates that while southern parts of Victoria are likely to experience drier than normal conditions over October to December, significant parts of the balance of Australia may experience above average rainfall. Their forecasts have gradually changed over the past 3 to 4 months with much less of the continent expected to face drier conditions.
Day and night temperatures are forecast to continue to be above average. Several weeks ago we had a few frosty mornings, however we are not seeing the frosts that can typically affect our region. Local gardeners tell us not to plant tomatoes until after Cup Day because of potential frosts. While we might still get some frosts, they are not likely to be significant.
The Bureau web site provides lots of valuable information and analysis. Their graph which follows, shows how annual mean temperatures for Australia have risen significantly. They base the variations or anomalies on the 30 years from 1961 to 1990. You can see, for that 30 year period we had a mixture of cooler and warmer years. However, the analysis makes it very clear that annual temperatures have been rising significantly since then.
This graph is licenced under a Creative Contributions Attribution International Licence which allows it to be used by others with recognition as stated on the Bureau page through the following link:
https://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi
Did you observe the full moon last weekend? In the Northern Hemisphere it is known as the “Harvest Moon”. Before electric lights, farmers would use the extra evening light to gather ripening summer crops late into the night. On the 23rd of September the Equinox occurred marking when day and night are nearly equal and the astronomical spring started in the Southern Hemisphere.
Victor Szwed
