The past month has seen 107mm of rain to the 29th – nicely above the long-term average of 79.6mm. Year to date rainfall of 946mm is well above the 769mm average to the end of October and annual rainfall average of 876.5mm.
The Weekly Times two weeks ago had indicated that better than expected rainfalls in many areas of Victoria have provided good conditions for farmers. Some are retaining more sheep and cattle to breed and crops are expected to be good.
The Bureau of Meteorology continues to forecast near average rainfall conditions for Victoria with some drier conditions possible for southern Victoria and Tasmania during November to January. Warmer than average nights and days are expected. Globally, September was the warmest September on record, continuing the trend of global warming.
The Super El Nino conditions with warmer ocean temperatures are forecast to result in severe flood risks in some parts of the world and severe droughts in other parts. The results for Australia are difficult to predict. Warmer ocean waters can result in more intensive rain events in some areas. They can also result in drier conditions for some areas. The Bureau’s 3 monthly forecasts have changed over recent months as the complex systems which affect our weather have changed.
Our local water storages are still 100% full. Melbourne’s reservoirs are 71% full compared to 73% this time last year. Ballarat has 75%, an improvement on the 50% full this time in 2025.
