Victor Szwed

After some very dry months this year, we had 109.4mm of rain in July, just above the 102.5mm average. So far, this year Daylesford has seen 367mm compared to the long-term average of 496mm at this point in the calendar. We are still running at only 75% of average annual rainfall after seven months.

The good news for farmers and gardeners is that the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting near average rainfall across Victoria and much of Australia from August to October. Above average rainfall is expected in parts of eastern and south-western Australia and below average in central and northern WA.

Only three months ago the conditions suggested lower levels of rainfall for much of the continent. Fortunately, the changes which have been occurring have the BOM on a La Nina Watch. They advise that there is about an equal chance of neutral conditions or a La Nina developing. The BOM refers to five climate models which currently show a very large spread of possible outcomes in the neutral to La Nina range.

Night and day temperatures are expected to continue to be above average across Australia with some cold periods still likely. On  July 22 the Earth experienced its warmest day in recent history with a daily global average reaching a new record high of 17.16°C. One radio commentator tried to make light of this stating that 17.16 degrees is relatively cool. What he failed to acknowledge is that this is an average across the globe including winter in the south, summer in the north, desert regions and cold mountainous regions.

Garlic loves cold ground conditions. Even though I planted late this year, they should be ready to harvest in December. (Photo: Victor Szwed)

The baseline temperature used by climate scientists is 13.5°C based on the average 20th century temperature and the average temperature across the globe between January and June this year was 1.29°C above that average. The temperature recorded on July 22 was 3.66°C above the baseline temperature. The bottom line is that our planet is regularly experiencing record high temperatures as well as less cold minimums.

With a decent month’s rainfall, Daylesford’s water reservoirs have improved over July from 63% full to 72%. Melbourne has huge reservoirs and they have improved from 86.5% to 88.5%.

Victor Szwed is a Daylesford resident who contributes a regular column about the weather to The Wombat Post.