Victor Szwed

Daylesford’s rainfall total for January and February was 31% below average, continuing the very dry conditions over the past year. In 2024 we only had 74% of our long-term average rainfall.

For the 12 months to the end of February 2025 we have had a “rainfall deficit” of 276mm resulting in ground moisture levels being very dry and Daylesford water reservoirs dropping down to 65% compared to 87% this time last year.

Fortunately, the $15 million pipeline connecting Daylesford to the Goldfields Super Pipeline is in place with testing and commissioning underway. Once the pumping station capacity at Blampied is upgraded, this could bring more than 300 million litres of water to Daylesford. While this pipeline will provide better water security to Daylesford, that security will be influenced by how much water is available from its sources and how much is needed for the Ballarat and Bendigo regions.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s modelling suggests that rainfall from March to May is expected to be “typical” for much of Australia including Victoria. But “Typical” can include variations which happen regularly. Hopefully, we will see some decent autumn rainfalls. Average rainfall ranges from 44.7 mm for March to 64.4mm for April and a nice 87.8mm for May.

Our farmers would welcome something close to average as they desperately need rain for autumn/winter pastures and crops to be successful. A farmer once told me during a significant drought: “Every day that it doesn’t rain it is one day closer to when the rains will come”.

The Bureau advises that sea surface temperatures for January 2025 were the warmest for all Januarys since records began in 1900. All international models indicate that El Nino/ La Nina conditions are neutral. The Bureau forecasts that day and night time temperatures will be warmer than average over March to May with increased chances of unusually high temperatures nationwide.

The autumn equinox occurs this year on 20th March. This is when Autumn really starts and normally we see a transition occurring from hotter summer conditions to milder autumn conditions and hopefully improved rainfalls.

Victor Szwed is a Daylesford resident who contributes a monthly weather update to The Wombat Post.