The Bureau of Meteorology advises that there is an 80% chance of above average rainfall during September to December for most of eastern Australia. The chance of La Nina developing during Spring has increased significantly to 70% which is three times the average likelihood.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be cooler over much of eastern and central Australia. Night-time temperatures are expected to continue to be warmer than average. Chances of snow falling reduce with milder night and morning temperatures even though there may be a chill factor with cold winds.
While some parts of the world are experiencing severe droughts and massive fires, much of Australia has been experiencing average or above average rainfall over the past couple of years. The eastern portions of Queensland and New South Wales would be worried about the increased likelihood of higher rainfalls again and possible flooding.
Here in Daylesford, my weather station recorded over 200mm of rainfall for August compared to the mean of 103.5mm for the month. The yearly total to the end of August was just over 710mm compared to the long-term mean of 610.7mm. My weather station recorded 37mm with the heavy rain on Monday this week and more falling Tuesday.
Each year, rainfall and temperatures can vary somewhat. Plants, birds, animals and other environmental indicators vary from year to year. During drier conditions some bulbs and plants either sprout later or sometimes skip a year. Fruit trees and vines need a good drink of water during Autumn to Spring to produce lots of fruit and they also want some nice sunny Spring conditions. The cooler daytime temperatures being forecast are likely to reduce some crop yields and most fruits will take longer to produce.
Daylesford’s water supply is 100% full and overflowing. Victoria’s storages are 90.6% full. Melbourne’s storages at 91.2% are 5% higher than last year. A good soaking and recharge of ground waters should reduce the need to water your gardens for quite some time.
Victor Szwed is a Daylesford resident who contributes a regular weather update to The Wombat Post.